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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:32 pm 
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BigJibboo wrote:
Good.

Dems making sure they’re on the right side of history, while the RNC backs Roy Moore.



Yep. It’s really going to be impossible for their glaring hypocrisy to not be brought up in the future.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:32 pm 
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Don Jr. might be the dumbest of all the Trumps, and that's saying something


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:42 pm 
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Jbslist wrote:
BigJibboo wrote:
Good.

Dems making sure they’re on the right side of history, while the RNC backs Roy Moore.



Yep. It’s really going to be impossible for their glaring hypocrisy to not be brought up in the future.




to be clear, I'm well aware that this is an unsubstantiated rumor off of twitter. But this seems entirely reasonable. Or, at the very least, it's absurd to think that Franken is the end of it. More and more politicians are going to get caught up in this and, in the long run, from a stictly political point of view, they are positioning themselves to take advantage of it.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:42 pm 
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So hard to see him go. A shining light in the Senate. Truly and example for all public servants.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:45 pm 
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Rockhound wrote:
Jbslist wrote:
BigJibboo wrote:
Good.

Dems making sure they’re on the right side of history, while the RNC backs Roy Moore.



Yep. It’s really going to be impossible for their glaring hypocrisy to not be brought up in the future.




to be clear, I'm well aware that this is an unsubstantiated rumor off of twitter. But this seems entirely reasonable. Or, at the very least, it's absurd to think that Franken is the end of it. More and more politicians are going to get caught up in this and, in the long run, from a stictly political point of view, they are positioning themselves to take advantage of it.


There are 46 Democrats and 52 Republicans in Congress, so there will likely be fault on both sides.

And then it’ll come down to “Yeah, well, more Democrats did it than Republicans!”
“Sure, by, like, two. And the stuff the Republicans did was WAY worse!”

Etcetera.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:47 pm 
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Hope one is Ted Cruz and The Washington madam, that’s supposed to be what trump had on him.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:49 pm 
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The thing that needs to be outed, discussed and then tossed in the fucking trash is the taxpayer funded slush fund that pays victims to be silent.

I keep wondering why that isn’t the main focus of these discussions.

17 million over the last ten or fifteen years to people accosted, harassed, groped, intimidated by United States senators and congressman....that get to keep their jobs.

I mean how is it even possible?

Out all of them (D) or (R) fucking scumbags.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:50 pm 
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hophead17 wrote:
Hope one is Ted Cruz and The Washington madam, that’s supposed to be what trump had on him.


cruz is the one that would make me lol the hardest. Or wait, I take that back. Pence getting caught coming out of a gay night club would really take the cake. You know it's only a matter of time.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:51 pm 
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cheetah440 wrote:
So hard to see him go. A shining light in the Senate. Truly and example for all public servants.

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terrible photoshop

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:54 pm 
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Jbslist wrote:
BigJibboo wrote:
Good.

Dems making sure they’re on the right side of history, while the RNC backs Roy Moore.



Yep. It’s really going to be impossible for their glaring hypocrisy to not be brought up in the future.


Great, a moral victory for the Dems while the R's and their supporters could give two licks and all the while stay in office to perform a Government takedown.

Moore and Trump prove it, they don't care as long as we can take things away from poor people and immigrants and hopefully get a step closer to having Christianity be the law of the land.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:55 pm 
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Jammin72 wrote:
Jbslist wrote:
BigJibboo wrote:
Good.

Dems making sure they’re on the right side of history, while the RNC backs Roy Moore.



Yep. It’s really going to be impossible for their glaring hypocrisy to not be brought up in the future.


Great, a moral victory for the Dems while the R's and their supporters could give two licks and all the while stay in office to perform a Government takedown.

Moore and Trump prove it, they don't care as long as we can take things away from poor people and immigrants and hopefully get a step closer to having Christianity be the law of the land.


Yep. All of this.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:01 pm 
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Malkovich wrote:
Jammin72 wrote:
Jbslist wrote:
BigJibboo wrote:
Good.

Dems making sure they’re on the right side of history, while the RNC backs Roy Moore.



Yep. It’s really going to be impossible for their glaring hypocrisy to not be brought up in the future.


Great, a moral victory for the Dems while the R's and their supporters could give two licks and all the while stay in office to perform a Government takedown.

Moore and Trump prove it, they don't care as long as we can take things away from poor people and immigrants and hopefully get a step closer to having Christianity be the law of the land.


Yep. All of this.



Yup. Like I said in the other thread they are trying to look good so they can use the hypocrisy in future political ads and debates but there is no indication that this will change voters and their votes when everyone is party before principles these days.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:22 pm 
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I don't disagree with you guys. But also think this take makes sense.



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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:24 pm 
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Nate also predicted a landslide for Hillary. I'm not sure he and his team are willing to believe how many people are willing to vote on fear of the other.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:25 pm 
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It won’t hurt their brand. All they have to do is deny it and the idiots will yell “fake news.”


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:26 pm 
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Jammin72 wrote:
Nate also predicted a landslide for Hillary. I'm not sure he and his team are willing to believe how many people are willing to vote on fear of the other.


that's not true at all. He did predict she'd win. But his models were much more conservative than most of the other ones out there and he gave trump a fairly decent shot to win.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:27 pm 
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nate silver is dead to me.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:40 pm 
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Jammin72 wrote:
Nate also predicted a landslide for Hillary.


That is completely incorrect. He was one of the few pundits pointing out that, while 538 had Hilary favored to win, there was enough polling error floating out there to make a Trump victory plausible.

edit: Rockhound beat me to it but yeah, what he said!


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:44 pm 
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Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Jammin72 wrote:
Nate also predicted a landslide for Hillary.


That is completely incorrect. He was one of the few pundits pointing out that, while 538 had Hilary favored to win, there was enough polling error floating out there to make a Trump victory plausible.

edit: Rockhound beat me to it but yeah, what he said!


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:04 pm 
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Nate Sliver!!!!!!!

Currently residing in the where are they now file.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:06 pm 
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So Franken resigns while saying none of the allegations are true, that he did nothing wrong. He says he didn't do any of the things he is alleged to have done.

Pretty dangerous precedent. Apparently now all one needs to do is simply allege a sitting Senator has done something wrong. There doesn't even need to be any proof. Just an allegation.

Very dangerous.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:09 pm 
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cheetah440 wrote:
So Franken resigns while saying none of the allegations are true, that he did nothing wrong. He says he didn't do any of the things he is alleged to have done.

Pretty dangerous precedent. Apparently now all one needs to do is simply allege a sitting Senator has done something wrong. There doesn't even need to be any proof. Just an allegation.

Very dangerous.



Well you need some pictures and pressure from colleagues.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:10 pm 
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cheetah440 wrote:
So Franken resigns while saying none of the allegations are true, that he did nothing wrong. He says he didn't do any of the things he is alleged to have done.

Pretty dangerous precedent. Apparently now all one needs to do is simply allege a sitting Senator has done something wrong. There doesn't even need to be any proof. Just an allegation.

Very dangerous.



I agree with this sentiment somewhat. What is the burden of proof? It seems like due process is getting thrown out in the revolution. I think overall that *at the moment* it's a possibly necessary victim in the pendulum swing that's been needed for well, all of human history, but I feel like in the social media rule by mob potential era that some care and standards should be considered.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:13 pm 
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KeepsBreakinDown wrote:
It won’t hurt their brand. All they have to do is deny it and the idiots will yell “fake news.”

100% this


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:13 pm 
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Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Jammin72 wrote:
Nate also predicted a landslide for Hillary.


That is completely incorrect. He was one of the few pundits pointing out that, while 538 had Hilary favored to win, there was enough polling error floating out there to make a Trump victory plausible.

edit: Rockhound beat me to it but yeah, what he said!

Meh, he gave the typical hedges but in the end he finished with this:

"Despite what you might think, we haven’t been trying to scare anyone with these updates.............

Nonetheless, Clinton is probably going to win, and she could win by a big margin."

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:16 pm 
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mr_bearcobb wrote:
cheetah440 wrote:
So Franken resigns while saying none of the allegations are true, that he did nothing wrong. He says he didn't do any of the things he is alleged to have done.

Pretty dangerous precedent. Apparently now all one needs to do is simply allege a sitting Senator has done something wrong. There doesn't even need to be any proof. Just an allegation.

Very dangerous.



Well you need some pictures and pressure from colleagues.


That picture was a joke and not proof of sexual harassment. As much as I disagree with Franken politically, for gods sake that isn't harassment. God help mankind if that is sexual harassment. I read where if you ask a girl out and she turns you down then you have sexually harassed her. This is where this is heading? Give me a break.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:16 pm 
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Well yeah, polling errors cut both ways. If the polls in wrong in aggregate in the other direction we'd all be talking about how the Trump phenomenon was way overblown.

That's exactly what happened in Virginia last month.

Also, he's a statistician. We all hedge. It comes from dealing with and thinking about model uncertainty on a daily basis.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:19 pm 
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Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Jammin72 wrote:
Nate also predicted a landslide for Hillary.


That is completely incorrect. He was one of the few pundits pointing out that, while 538 had Hilary favored to win, there was enough polling error floating out there to make a Trump victory plausible.

edit: Rockhound beat me to it but yeah, what he said!



I checked his site almost daily for a year and if they were wanting to make it seem like it was a toss up election then they were presenting their data in a very odd way.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:21 pm 
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So, groping a woman while she is asleep is not sexual harassment/assault? Of course, this piece of shit also thinks that a 30 year old dating a 14 year old is normal; so par for the course.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:22 pm 
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cheetah440 wrote:
mr_bearcobb wrote:
cheetah440 wrote:
So Franken resigns while saying none of the allegations are true, that he did nothing wrong. He says he didn't do any of the things he is alleged to have done.

Pretty dangerous precedent. Apparently now all one needs to do is simply allege a sitting Senator has done something wrong. There doesn't even need to be any proof. Just an allegation.

Very dangerous.



Well you need some pictures and pressure from colleagues.


That picture was a joke and not proof of sexual harassment. As much as I disagree with Franken politically, for gods sake that isn't harassment. God help mankind if that is sexual harassment. I read where if you ask a girl out and she turns you down then you have sexually harassed her. This is where this is heading? Give me a break.



wow. the dumb is really strong in you.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:22 pm 
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Jammin72 wrote:
cheetah440 wrote:
So Franken resigns while saying none of the allegations are true, that he did nothing wrong. He says he didn't do any of the things he is alleged to have done.

Pretty dangerous precedent. Apparently now all one needs to do is simply allege a sitting Senator has done something wrong. There doesn't even need to be any proof. Just an allegation.

Very dangerous.



I agree with this sentiment somewhat. What is the burden of proof? It seems like due process is getting thrown out in the revolution. I think overall that *at the moment* it's a possibly necessary victim in the pendulum swing that's been needed for well, all of human history, but I feel like in the social media rule by mob potential era that some care and standards should be considered.

Not everyone is Harvey......there are significant differences. That's been my point with Roy Moore. Of course the guy went fishing in the teenage pool, probably chasing 17-18yr olds. Creepy of course, but not illegal at all. That 14yr most likely said she was 17 and got in over her head, and she basically admitted she went where she shouldn't have without saying it. I think Moore was likely a socially retarded guy in his 30's, but I don't believe he went looking for a 14yr old. I also believe his life after he got married matters. Again, why I referenced Robert Byrd.
You can go back into history and destroy almost anyone if you dig deep enough. Again, these aren't Harvey Weinstein level accusations. This is all a classic witch hunt, a political witch hunt and it's dangerous. Unless you want a bunch of Mike Pence's who won't sit with another woman without his wife by his side. I don't know if we can find 100 of them.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:24 pm 
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junkbondking wrote:
cheetah440 wrote:
mr_bearcobb wrote:
cheetah440 wrote:
So Franken resigns while saying none of the allegations are true, that he did nothing wrong. He says he didn't do any of the things he is alleged to have done.

Pretty dangerous precedent. Apparently now all one needs to do is simply allege a sitting Senator has done something wrong. There doesn't even need to be any proof. Just an allegation.

Very dangerous.



Well you need some pictures and pressure from colleagues.


That picture was a joke and not proof of sexual harassment. As much as I disagree with Franken politically, for gods sake that isn't harassment. God help mankind if that is sexual harassment. I read where if you ask a girl out and she turns you down then you have sexually harassed her. This is where this is heading? Give me a break.



wow. the dumb is really strong in you.


Really insightful.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:24 pm 
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They certainly had Clinton favored to win, as did most forecasting sites (a position that was justified given the polling data), but they were also certainly reporting much larger margins of error and being more conservative with their win probabilities than say, the New York Times.

You can have a position on what you think will happen and still acknowledge the uncertainty around that and the likelihood that your forecast will end up being incorrect. I'd say 538 was pretty consistent on that point, particularly in the weeks leading up to the election.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:26 pm 
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Yeah, we don't agree on Moore. Shocker, I know.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:31 pm 
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Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
They certainly had Clinton favored to win, as did most forecasting sites (a position that was justified given the polling data), but they were also certainly reporting much larger margins of error and being more conservative with their win probabilities than say, the New York Times.

You can have a position on what you think will happen and still acknowledge the uncertainty around that and the likelihood that your forecast will end up being incorrect. I'd say 538 was pretty consistent on that point, particularly in the weeks leading up to the election.



Sure but their last estimate at a Trump win was 29%. Granted I'm not a statistician by any means but that seems like a pretty far off number in my world.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:35 pm 
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Jammin72 wrote:
Yeah, we don't agree on Moore. Shocker, I know.


I don't like the guy, but the entire episode is pretty bullshit. 40yr old allegations with Gloria Alred involved are pretty much political witch hunts. But politics ain't beanbag and that's the way this stuff goes. Personally I hope he wins and Mitch throws him out. Which is probably what will happen.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:40 pm 
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Jammin72 wrote:
Sure but their last estimate at a Trump win was 29%. Granted I'm not a statistician by any means but that seems like a pretty far off number in my world.


A 30% chance of winning is not trivial by any means. That is a thing that, while not likely given the data, is a definite possibility.

I think the NYT's last estimate had his chance of winning at like 5% or something

The major difference between those forecasts was that the former allowed for much greater possibility that the polls were incorrect, which, given the amount of error you saw when looking at the polling data in aggregate, was a good assumption.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:46 pm 
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lol at people shitting on nate silver when he was the one telling everyone else that trump had a significant chance to win, while everyone else was saying he didnt


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:53 pm 
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balls wrote:
lol at people shitting on nate silver when he was the one telling everyone else that trump had a significant chance to win, while everyone else was saying he didnt



Not shitting on him. He was more accurate than most. I'm just not as likely currently to give their predictive prowess nearly as much credit when it comes to the current state of mind of the american population and for whom/what they're most likely to vote and who will actually make it to the voting booths. I don't know if they've found some new data sources that perhaps they felt they missed or ignored I just know every day when I felt like I was going nuts during the election cycle I kept looking there to be reminded that I wasn't.

Now it's all... :frantic:

I realize this may be more personal than rational.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:55 pm 
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cheetah440 wrote:
mr_bearcobb wrote:
cheetah440 wrote:
So Franken resigns while saying none of the allegations are true, that he did nothing wrong. He says he didn't do any of the things he is alleged to have done.

Pretty dangerous precedent. Apparently now all one needs to do is simply allege a sitting Senator has done something wrong. There doesn't even need to be any proof. Just an allegation.

Very dangerous.



Well you need some pictures and pressure from colleagues.


That picture was a joke and not proof of sexual harassment. As much as I disagree with Franken politically, for gods sake that isn't harassment. God help mankind if that is sexual harassment. I read where if you ask a girl out and she turns you down then you have sexually harassed her. This is where this is heading? Give me a break.


Yeah I read something about that too. It's all pendulum swings so we need clarification on the new normal


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:59 pm 
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he's not a bigot bc he's not making laws that restrict your right to religion


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:33 pm 
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It looks like a republican representative from Arizona is going to resign now.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:41 pm 
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at the risk of coming off as a nate silver fluffer, 538 had this piece on the AL race today. Thought it was informative. Also talks a lot about polling errors and how they come up with these numbers and shit. Lots of references to the pres race as well and what happened there.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/doug-jones-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-away-from-a-win-in-alabama/

(spoiler alert: it's close! or maybe it's not!)


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:53 pm 
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Rockhound wrote:

(spoiler alert: it's close! or maybe it's not!)



:lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:55 pm 
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cheetah440 wrote:
Jammin72 wrote:
cheetah440 wrote:
So Franken resigns while saying none of the allegations are true, that he did nothing wrong. He says he didn't do any of the things he is alleged to have done.

Pretty dangerous precedent. Apparently now all one needs to do is simply allege a sitting Senator has done something wrong. There doesn't even need to be any proof. Just an allegation.

Very dangerous.



I agree with this sentiment somewhat. What is the burden of proof? It seems like due process is getting thrown out in the revolution. I think overall that *at the moment* it's a possibly necessary victim in the pendulum swing that's been needed for well, all of human history, but I feel like in the social media rule by mob potential era that some care and standards should be considered.

Not everyone is Harvey......there are significant differences. That's been my point with Roy Moore. Of course the guy went fishing in the teenage pool, probably chasing 17-18yr olds. Creepy of course, but not illegal at all. That 14yr most likely said she was 17 and got in over her head, and she basically admitted she went where she shouldn't have without saying it. I think Moore was likely a socially retarded guy in his 30's, but I don't believe he went looking for a 14yr old. I also believe his life after he got married matters. Again, why I referenced Robert Byrd.
You can go back into history and destroy almost anyone if you dig deep enough. Again, these aren't Harvey Weinstein level accusations. This is all a classic witch hunt, a political witch hunt and it's dangerous. Unless you want a bunch of Mike Pence's who won't sit with another woman without his wife by his side. I don't know if we can find 100 of them.


wow, just wow


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:40 pm 
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cheetah440 wrote:
So Franken resigns while saying none of the allegations are true, that he did nothing wrong. He says he didn't do any of the things he is alleged to have done.

Pretty dangerous precedent. Apparently now all one needs to do is simply allege a sitting Senator has done something wrong. There doesn't even need to be any proof. Just an allegation.

Very dangerous.


To me it just means he is unwilling to admit to wrongdoing.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:42 pm 
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Jammin72 wrote:
Not shitting on him. He was more accurate than most. I'm just not as likely currently to give their predictive prowess nearly as much credit when it comes to the current state of mind of the american population and for whom/what they're most likely to vote and who will actually make it to the voting booths. I don't know if they've found some new data sources that perhaps they felt they missed or ignored I just know every day when I felt like I was going nuts during the election cycle I kept looking there to be reminded that I wasn't.

Now it's all... :frantic:

I realize this may be more personal than rational.


I mean, you're not wrong. He did definitely forecast a Clinton win. I do think he deserves credit for equivocating and adopting a little more nuance than some others though. There were forecasters giving Trump like literally next to zero chance. In retrospect that was obviously a very bad prediction.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:45 pm 
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Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
There were forecasters giving Trump like literally next to zero chance..

every single dem on phook, that's for sure.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:49 pm 
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phishingruven01 wrote:
Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
There were forecasters giving Trump like literally next to zero chance..

every single dem on phook, that's for sure.


I certainly didn't think that there was enough dumb people in this country to elect someone with zero political experience and the temperament of a spoiled 10 year old to the highest political office in the country. I guess I gave Americans too much credit

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